March 2019 Legendary Banner Expectations

[Johann]

NEXT MONTH'S THREAD:

Please use the most recent thread if you intend to make posts about future banners. Feel free to use this thread for analysis of trends, etc.

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Went through about 650 orbs on the February banner and I think I'm at a good stopping point, but I need to write this up in case I get tempted to keep pulling.

LEGENDARIES/MYTHICS: The following are confirmed based on the notifications:

• Legendary Ryoma
• Legendary Lucina
• Legendary Azura
• Eir
• New Mythic Hero

SEASONALS: Two dancers in January, will we see that again in February? We will see at least one, for sure.

• Halloween Kagero - Extremely good odds, rounding out the Halloween banner
• Halloween Myrrh - Extremely good odds, rounding out the Halloween banner
• Halloween Mia - Extremely good odds, rounding out the Halloween banner
• Winter Heroes (Fae, Ephraim, Eirika) - Very unlikely given that the Halloween units should be wrapping up this month. They could throw us a curveball, but I wouldn't count on it.

REGULAR 5★ HEROES: Not a lot of heroes to pick from this month, it's mostly down to a few stand-outs

• Brave Celica - Decent odds, being the last CYL2 unit to appear. Yet, considering how Roy only appeared once last year, I am beginning to suspect that they don't like fielding Galeforce users when they can avoid it.
• Owain - Decent odds, there was Hero Fest but he's also the next in line among regular reds. I feel like it's a toss-up between him and Camilla, with his Hero Fest appearance hurting his chances.
• Adrift Camilla - Good odds, rounding out the Adrift banner.
• Tibarn - Extremely low odds, Camilla should be appearing before him. He might take a while to show since we're looking at 3 red Legendaries in April, and have the NY heroes to get through as well.
• Olwen (green tome) - Decent odds, as she's been skipping repeatedly. However, compared to the alternatives who are far more desirable, I wouldn't rule her out to be the "dud" of an already stacked color
• Lewyn - Decent odds, but his Hero Fest appearance might hurt his chances. He's also got a much better selection of skills compared to Olwen
• Brave Ephraim - Low odds, putting him the same banner as Halloween Kagero seems pretty unlikely given what powerful armor skills they both bring. Still,
• Ylgr - Very high odds, following Surtr as the sole remaining Book II hero. That trend alone really helps her chances.
• Quan - Very low odds, he's been skipped before and I doubt that's going to change anytime soon.
• Ophelia - Low odds, if you consider that the recent Hero Fest characters have been largely skipped. Maybe in the future though.
• Nailah - Extremely low odds given the other possibilities and limited spaces for blues, but she should be showing up down the road.
• Brave Veronica - Decent odds, there's really no possibilities beyond rerunning older units or putting Leanne in now. Given how frequently colorless units were repeated last year, I think we'll see her again quite soon.
• Leanne - Decent odds, unless they wanna rerun older units, but I kinda think they'd only do that when they run out of 5*s to pick from

MY PREDICTED LIST: This is my own guess based on everything above and a few glasses of wine. There are a lot of units in here that I'm not super confident about, owing to the new hero being potentially any color, so I'd recommend reading everything above if you're trying to make an informed decision about saving orbs.

• Legendary Ryoma
• Halloween Myrrh
• Adrift Camilla
• New Mythic Hero - uh, I dunno, Mila
• Halloween Kagero
• Olwen (green tome)
• Legendary Lucina
• Legendary Azura
• Ylgr
• Eir
• Halloween Mia
• Brave Veronica

WHO'S THAT POKEMON NEW HERO? We won't know the hero's blessing, but it's really between Astra and Dark types. Make of that what you will. The green color suggests to me a Divine Dragon (going, perhaps arbitrarily, from Fae and the Naga tome being green), though I suppose a green mage could suffice as well. Can't think of any godly axe users other than Haar. Side note, I'm beginning to suspect that Dark/Anima heroes will more frequently be villain characters (aside from the obvious "dark is evil" thing) due to being the AR Defense units, meaning there's a gameplay incentive to thematically build your awful AR team with major villains.

• Mila: As Duma's counterpart, Mila could appear as an Astra hero, ensuring that many players would see them clash in game. Neat!
• Idunn: Among possible Dark heroes, she's a contender if you accept her Divine Dragon origin as a green thing. There's a case for her to be red or colorless instead, though.
• Naga: Of all the Divine Dragons, she's the Diviniest, but I can't see her being anything other than Light, so I don't think this is her time
• Ashera: Potentially an Astra hero, as Astra is effectively the Heaven affinity, though I'm inclined to think she'd be a blue tome or staff user, so maybe not this time
• Lewyn: Possessed by Forseti, the older version of Lewyn would be pretty neat and probably the only Mythic green tome unless they did possessed Julia or something. Arguable that he should be a Wind Legendary, but then we only have so many "god-like" characters for Mythic status, so I could give him a pass for Astra.
• Other major villains: Certainly candidates for Dark, but green? Hard to say. With dragons (Medeus and Anankos in particular) there's always a possibility of course, since there's no hard rule as to why who is what color among dragons.

FUTURE ANALYSIS: 

• March: Ryoma, Lucina, Azura, Eir, New Green Mythic
• April: Ike, Marth, Roy, Hector, Fjorm, New Colorless Legendary
• May: Hríd, Eirika, Tiki, Lyn, Duma, New Mythic (unknown color)
• June: Gunnthrá, Ephraim, Robin, New Legendary (unknown color)
• April is sure to throw us for a loop. We'll have 6 Legendary heroes, 3 of which are red, as well as an expansion of what the lightning bolt blessing effect is supposed to do (perhaps related to a new game mode). I wouldn't rule out the possibility that we'll see the Legendary banners expand to 16 units, honestly.
• CYL2 units haven't made a full appearance and took February off. The banners of last year taught us that there's no hard rules with these units, just that they're likely to appear more regularly than others. I suspect we'll see them used as filler when the banners are short on normal 5*s

Previous threads: 

• June 2018 Banner Expectations
• July 2018 Banner Expectations
• August 2018 Banner Expectations
• September 2018 Banner Expectations
• October 2018 Banner Expectations
• November 2018 Banner Expectations
• December 2018 Banner Expectations
• January 2019 Banner Expectations
• February 2019 Banner Expectations

Edited March 29, 2019 by Johann

[Vaximillian]

I do expect Iðunn because Roy and the upcoming FE6 banner.
But I’ve never guessed correctly, so.

[Stroud]

Hmm Iðunn  would be nice, but I kind of do not expect her.

I would feel blessed with Naga. But I don't know if green is her color. I think she is more likely to be red as Tiki might foreshadow.
Mila is a solid option for green, still not that confident about her. It is actually not that easy to think of some fitting green mystic heroes. And she might be Astra to be a counterpart to duma.
Somehow I feel that Iðunn would fit as green and she might be dark anyway she clearly fits, only as someone mentioned that she is not entirely what we would see as mystic hero for now. Lyon (Formotiis). Might also have a little chance, but I hardly imagine his color to be green.

For now it really feels difficult to come up with ideas which makes sense, we kind of have a hunch what pattern mythic heroes could have, but we could still be mistaken about it.

 

[Othin]

I'm standing by my guess of Mila. Duma being an Anima mythic basically guarantees Mila as an Astra mythic eventually, and she'd be a good fit for green, so why not?

In the long run, Naga/Medeus and Ashera/Yune seem like other likely pairs, probably Light/Dark and Astra/Anima, respectively. Medeus will probably be red, which leaves blue and green for Naga and Mila if they want them to be four different breath colors. (Between Legendary Tiki and the Naga spell, both blue and green have Divine Dragon associations, so they seem fairly interchangeable at this point.) Yune could show up possessing Micaiah, or as herself.

I'm continuing to guess that Idunn will be on the banner, not as a mythic. No one worships her.

[Fire Emblem Fan]

I'm feeling like Mila and Idunn are the two best guesses for the next Mythic hero, but I have reservations about both. I really feel like Idunn will be either a GHB or on a regular banner, and I'm not sure they'd give us Mila immediately following Duma. Then again, with Roy's Legendary wedged between them, I guess it's a possibility.

[Mau]

Hmm those colorless predictions would be absolutely perfect. Still want to replace/merge my -atk H!Mia, would never mind another Eir, and still want Veronica and Leanne, so can't go wrong there. If the Mythic is Mila though, that would be a problem cause she's on of the characters I want the most. If she's together with H!Kagero and Olwen though, eesh :/ Not really expecting her though, think they would wait a bit right after Duma before introducing her.

[Diovani Bressan]

April's Legendary Hero will probably have the Lighting Effect too, since the effect will be introduced on that month. It will be a while until we get the Earth Res Legendary Hero and the Fire Spd Legendary Hero.

Also, about April's Legendary Hero... maybe the hero could be Earth. I mean, we have being getting the full element circle each 4 Legendary banners.

• 1st circle: Fjorm, Gunnthrá, Ike, Ephraim;
• 2nd circle: Robin, Lyn, Ryoma, Hector;
• 3rd circle: Lucina, Marth, Tiki, Eirika;
• 4th circle: Hríd, Azura, Roy, ???

[Zapp Branniglenn]

Besides avoiding blues, this banner sounds good for me.

[Interdimensional Observer]

1 hour ago, Johann said:

• Naga: Of all the Divine Dragons, she's the Diviniest, but I can't see her being anything other than Light, so I don't think this is her time
• Ashera: Potentially an Astra hero, as Astra is effectively the Heaven affinity, though I'm inclined to think she'd be a blue tome or staff user, so maybe not this time

Actually, while I think Naga would be Light, making her Astra, using your logic for Ashera, works as a distant second place. Naga is a Divine Dragon. Divine = Light, and forms a contrast with Medeus, who is a Shadow Dragon, and Shadow = Dark.

However, Divine can also mean "something heavenly", and the biggest enemy of the Divine Dragons in the degeneration conflict was the Earth Dragons. "Heaven and Earth" is another, different duality. I like how through the ambiguity of the word Divine and the stacking of two dragon titles on Medeus- Shadow and Earth, IS was able to place two dualities in one thing.

 

I hesitate to think Idunn might be the next Mythic. Since Legendaries/Mythics only come at the end of a month, by which time the Binding Blade banner would have expired. And while I think the next banner after Binding Blade is yet another Spring Special, if by some chance it was a New Heroes, Idunn might be incongruent with it.

[Othin]

5 minutes ago, Interdimensional Observer said:

I hesitate to think Idunn might be the next Mythic. Since Legendaries/Mythics only come at the end of a month, by which time the Binding Blade banner would have expired. And while I think the next banner after Binding Blade is yet another Spring Special, if by some chance it was a New Heroes, Idunn might be incongruent with it.

I don't think that's very relevant, it's like saying legendary Ike was incongruous with the Sacred Stones banner that was running despite matching the Radiant Dawn banner earlier that month. And if we consider legendary Ephraim the following month to have been associated with that Sacred Stones banner, by then it had been over for weeks. And then there's the matter of elemental heroes like Duma with a main banner nowhere in sight.

Personally I don't think Idunn will be a mythic at all, but if she ever is, that would be the perfect time.

[Florete]

I don't think Mila will come so soon after Duma. My guess for this month's new mythic is one of Ashera, Yune, or Ashunera as either green tome or green beast.

[Humanoid]

Delicious-looking banner if it comes out anywhere resembling the prediction. Every single colour would offer better than the best colour of the current month's banner. Even the projected armours offer enough for me to not be disappointed to be broken by them. The two sword infantry and Quan would be the only let-downs of the units explicitly named.

Might have to farm out more orbs than I normally do these days in anticipation, which makes it more unfortunate that I might miss a week or so worth of orbs because I will be away and potentially without Internet for a while.

[EricaofRenais]

I think Idunn will be on the banner since she was the the most wanted FE 6 unit in the CYL polls.  I would like it if it was Ashera or Mila.  Honestly I lean towards it being Mila to be a partner to Duma.  I do think we have a high chance of the mythic being a female unit, since the last two new legendary/mythic heroes were male.

[TheTuckingFypo]

@Johann Do you think that there's a possibility that the Legendary/Mythic Banner's pool increase from 12 to 16?

That march banner already looks good.

[Othin]

Well, we'll know if it's Idunn within the next week. If she's not on the FE6 banner (or an associated free unit, which seems unlikely), she'll have to be the mythic. But I'm pretty confident she'll be on the FE6 banner.

Another issue I have with mythic Idunn is redundancy. I think we can safely assume Mila, Naga, and Medeus will all be mythic eventually: Medeus might be a bit questionable, but he has far more reason to be mythic than Idunn does. Duma/Mila/Naga/Medeus would be four mythic dragons: one for each color, and one for each element. Idunn would mean doubling up on both, which seems pretty silly to me. (Admittedly, so would Anankos if he makes it in too, but if we don't need a fifth mythic dragon, we certainly don't need a sixth.)

[Landmaster]

Guessing the Mythic will be either Idunn or Mila

As for the Banner itself, H!Myrrh would be nice, Veronica would be super nice, better IV H!Mia would be cool but not needed~ Yglr would be some nice fodder, I guess~ Have Neutral Lucina and Azura so I don't really need those two~ No interest in Eir or Ryoma (even if mine is -Atk)~

Guess it depends on the Mythic how heavily I'll pull here if at all since the only "must" would be Veronica for those F2P Guides~

[Othin]

Thinking about later legendaries:

The current missing combinations are Fire/Spd, Earth/Res, Earth/Duel, Water/Duel, and Wind/Duel. If we don't get any more chart expansion shenanigans, at least until 2020, these should be the next five. If we do get more chart expansion shenanigans... well, they'll probably be a few legendaries down the line anyway.

• April should be Earth/Duel. Earth wraps up the cycle of four, and with the Duel mechanic being fully implemented in April and Roy getting an early rerun to go along with it, it'd make no sense for this one's bonus to not be Duel.
• June could keep piling on more Duel skills, but I'm guessing they'll start alternating between Duel and regular ones here. If so, this should be Fire/Spd, since two consecutive Earth heroes would be weird. Although they might no longer care about that now that legendary heroes are every two months?
• August could be Water/Duel or Wind/Duel if they do the alternating. Who knows which.
• October would have to be Earth/Res if the rest of this holds, since it's the only remaining normal bonus. However, even if the first three work out, this could be the place where they do more chart expansion shenanigans, since like with Roy, it'd be breaking away at what would be the second-to-last to chart completion.
• December would be whichever is left if there still haven't been any more shenanigans by now. The rest of these predictions suggest that's either Water/Duel or Wind/Duel.

Although really, when's the last time a prediction this long-term has ever worked out anyway.

[SSbardock84]

Astra: Ashera

Dark: Yune in Micaiah's body

Since the color will be green, my guess is Ashera. If Yune ever comes in Micaiah's body I'd think she'd have a staff. If she had a tome, green just doesn't seem right.

[Lord-Zero]

I’ll go with...Mila or Fallen Gunter. Idunn isn’t really worth the “Mythic” treatment and there’s no colorless dragons in the non-limited pool and she could be a good fit for it. 

 

[Sentinel07]

I don't think Idun will be the next one. Given her dark dragon theme, I feel like she'd likely end up a Red Dragon instead of a Green one.

As for Mila, I imagine she'll come eventually but I don't see them pulling 2 Gaiden Mythics in a row.

If I had to put in an official guess, I guess it'd be Naga or Forseti. Or maybe Julia, given she basically uses Naga's power.

[Johann]

1 hour ago, Sentinel07 said:

I don't think Idun will be the next one. Given her dark dragon theme, I feel like she'd likely end up a Red Dragon instead of a Green one.

As for Mila, I imagine she'll come eventually but I don't see them pulling 2 Gaiden Mythics in a row.

A fair point, but remember that Male Grima is a green dragon as well. They seem to be ok with not having any hard rules for dragon colors (especially when you consider that some dragons have alts of different colors), so arguably any major dragon character has green as a possibility.

Regarding two Gaiden Mythics, that's another fair point, but on the flip side, we can point to Tiki debuting right after Marth, so it wouldn't be the first time they have two characters from the same game appear back-to-back

[Fire Emblem Fan]

What about Athos? I don't think he's as likely as several other candidates, but I feel like he might fit the bill.

[Johann]

14 minutes ago, Fire Emblem Fan said:

What about Athos? I don't think he's as likely as several other candidates, but I feel like he might fit the bill.

Always possible, though I think his chances are hurt if you consider the "god-like" descriptor. Does it mean power rivaling the gods, or worshiped as a god? Hard to say for sure with only 2 Mythics available, but Athos would fall into that nebulous "maybe" category whereas characters like Naga or Ashera meet the criteria without any ambiguity. For what it's worth, his in-game affinity was Anima, and this hero almost certainly won't be Anima, so I think there are a few too many things working against him at the moment.

13 hours ago, Diovani Bressan said:

April's Legendary Hero will probably have the Lighting Effect too, since the effect will be introduced on that month. It will be a while until we get the Earth Res Legendary Hero and the Fire Spd Legendary Hero.

Also, about April's Legendary Hero... maybe the hero could be Earth. I mean, we have being getting the full element circle each 4 Legendary banners.

• 1st circle: Fjorm, Gunnthrá, Ike, Ephraim;
• 2nd circle: Robin, Lyn, Ryoma, Hector;
• 3rd circle: Lucina, Marth, Tiki, Eirika;
• 4th circle: Hríd, Azura, Roy, ???

Somehow I skipped over your post, but yeah April will be Earth. It was possible to figure out even before Roy appeared since February's hero was lined up to be Fire, based on the seasons. I know a lot of people expect Micaiah as an eventual Dark Mythic, but I think she'll be April's hero as a Earth Legendary using a staff.

[Othin]

Athos also seems unlikely to be green. His signature weapon is Forblaze, after all.

[Azure the Scale Tipper]

52 minutes ago, Othin said:

Athos also seems unlikely to be green. His signature weapon is Forblaze, after all.

More like blue w/ Aureola, since Lilina already has Forblaze.