If Travant Had Conquered the Manster District

[Interdimensional Observer]

A simple hypothetical, how would FE4 (and 5- but I haven't played that yet waiting for a better translation) differ if Travant had succeeded in his goal of unifying the Thracian Peninsula?

 

As for how he did it, either pretend Raydrik's betrayal to Grannvale wasn't enough to stop Travant or that he betrayed to Thracia instead. And assume that Alster didn't summon Freege to its aid and or Travant was so swift he firmly took the north before Grannvale could arrive.

 

First, it should be pondered how the Empire would react. Southern Thracia is loaded with Wyverns, but agriculturally barren, so I can understand why Grannvale would settle with an alliance, Travant was too weak to be an actual threat, and the material gains from taking the south would be outweighed by the cost. If Travant had the fertile and presumably populous north, it would be a very different picture. The gains of conquest would be greater, and Travant would have a lot more resources to work with, making him a more serious threat to the Empire.

Would Grannvale push to destroy Travant? Or would it acquiesce in his control? They'd still have the rest of the continent. And I saved a screenshot of Arvis promising to Leptor Agustria, so the Freeges would still have a lovely country under their rule. If there was war, would Travant have been annihilated, or would it have been a prolonged conflict, possibly ending in a stalemate, and on what conditions?

 

Second, how would this affect Seliph?

Although this forces me to consider how this would affect Leif right away. Since the narrative reason (the gameplay reason is to have all of Jugdral fought on in one game) for Seliph going to Manster District is to help Leif's rebellion. If Leif didn't rebel, would Seliph have gone to Silesse instead?

And even Leif had, would Lewyn have told Seliph to go to Manster? The rebellion would've been against Thracian rule, and the great evil Lewyn wants destroyed is Loptyr's Empire. 

That then begs the question of whether Travant would have agreed to an alliance with Grannvale against the rebels in the first place. Travant's reasons for the attack in Chapter 9 is to retake Thracian territory Seliph conquered, the result of Travant trying to claim the north then under Seliph's fresh control in Chapter 8.

If Travant has no alliance pre-Seliph with Grannvale, then Lewyn might not have suggested they go to the Peninsula- assuming Travant's ambitions stopped with only the northern half and didn't spill over to other parts of the world. And if Seliph doesn't start taking the north, Travant has no need to force him out of it, in turn sparing Seliph of the need to silence a threat before heading to fight Grannvale.

If Seliph doesn't go to Thracia, well the only logical place for him to go from there is Silesse. Assuming Lewyn would have thought after Issach the rebellion was still too weak for a direct conflict with Grannvale, Silesse would have been the only other place reachable from Issach and Yied. Whether Seliph would then have replicated Chapter 5 and have gone for a Phinora approach on Belhalla, or instead sailed to Orgahill and then crossed to Madino for a reverse Chapter 2-3 conquest of Agustria before invading near Freege, I cannot predict.

 

Third, how would this affect Leif?

Travant we know would've wanted him dead, so his life would still have been that of a runaway prince. But how that running would've been different, I do not know. A rebellion might be possible, we haven't any idea if Travant would show any love to the northerners, he certainly had no problem killing any including innocents who got in his way from conquering the north. Though the rebellion would be removed from the greater spirit of rebellion against Grannvale.

I would expect less Loptyr Cult though, even if Travant would have accepted a member to appease Grannvale. Although that might not have been needed if he had the whole Peninsula since he'd be in a position of greater strength and hence not needing to compromise with Grannvale so.

Less/no Loptyrians, and Veld might not be there, no Veld, no Stone, no end to Eyvel as we know it, if any end at all. Certainly Olwen, Reinhardt, Kempf and Fred would not have been in Thracia in 776 either, nor Sara, nor Salem, nor Saias, nor Amalda, nor maybe Sleuf. Coirpre would not have been child-hunted either. Linoan and her bodyguards might not have featured too. And Seliph if he didn't show up would have meant no Diarmuid, although Leif might have still have had Ced, and perhaps gained Febail, but no Patty since she would likely tag with Shannan. Leif might even have gotten Ares, but that is really hard to tell.

 

And on that note, clearly a lot of things would have changed. Plots are built on little assumptions and conditions. Overall, Seliph's journey however would have ultimately remained the same in its goals- liberate parts of Jugdral culminating in a clash with Julius in Grannvale. What for Seliph may have been different is likely where he would have fought his battles before ending in Grannvale. Leif's journey, being so thoroughly centered in in the Thracia Peninsula and its local conditions however, probably would have seen much much more fundamental changes.

[Acacia Sgt]

For Travant to unite Thracia shortly after the Berhara events, it's definitely needed for Raydrick to not be convinced to join Granvale's ploy to take over Manster, and/or Alster to not send the message of aid to the Freeges. The latter is easily done if the messenger is intercepted. Not hard to do when you have your dragon knights. Specially since said messenger likely has to travel through Yied on horseback at best, and we know what happens with that kind of situation. Unless the message just goes through Edda from Darna, avoiding the desert. Either way, Travant would have the capability to intercept it, so long he hears about it. The Raydrick bit would be the harder one to do. Raydrick was contacted before Travant launched his invasion. The plan was to betray the Manster kingdoms and pretend to help Travant, then betray him once Granvale forces were coming (likely banking that someone in the Manster District would soon call for help, giving them the excuse to take over). Travant would need to reach Raydrick first before the empire.

It's a bit hard to say if Raydrick not throwing his lot with Granvale would change the outcome if Granvale still attacks. As Travant says to Arione during the siege of Tahra, the battle near Melgen where the betrayal happened, Travant had both forces from both south and north against the incoming Granvelians, and still lost. And the Empire would only become stronger over time as their grip on the rest of the continent tightens, giving them more resources to allocate on the attack of Manster. Therefore, Travant's best chance to hold the entire peninsula is for Granvale to not arrive. As seen with Raydrick, Granvale had plans to take over Manster, so it's hard to tell if they wouldn't try something else, or Travant is able to negotiate beforehand.

Either way, I could see Travant trying to still go for an alliance or non-agression pact at the least, to keep their independence. As he also noted to Arione about the battle at Melgen, even united the peninsula was no match for Granvale. It doesn't quite have to be true, but so long Travant felt that way, he would seek anything that kept him still in control. Unless Granvale is really seeking to control Manster relentlessly, they'd let Travant keep it, the same way southern itself was spared an invasion and remained independent. Granvale would still be quite powerful to keep Thracia in check. Perhaps they'd want to receive some kind of tribute in exchange of their freedom, or something like that.

Of course, it's a different matter if Granvale attacks anyway, and Travant is actually able to stop them at Melgen without Raydrick's betrayal. This could kill the chances of an alliance, but as I noted above, Travant would still believe fighting against the Empire is futile, and would instead seek a peace treaty that benefits him. At best he could force Granvale to accept the entire peninsula is his, but might still look for an alliance or something. As it is, I don't see Thracia's independence surviving unless they officially ally with the Empire.

If the alliance still exists, Seliph might still be forced to attack Thracia. As allies, Granvale would still call them for help, so Seliph might still be forced to head south, specially if Leif still raises a rebellion in northern Thracia. After what Travant did, I find it really hard to not see the Manster District to seek indepence, regardless if it's from the Empire or from Travant. I don't see Lewyn throwing Leif to the wolves, and I think he'd rather support the weakening of the Empire's ally than convincing said ally to help them instead, so likely he'll still send August to find Leif, and tell Seliph to go help him out. Ch7 of Genealogy is likely to still go more or less the same, except it'd be Thracian forces at Melgen and Alster.

After this, Seliph would be forced to head east, as per Ch8. I doubt he'd abandon the Manster District to Travant, and since the Empire might still call them to help (plus Travant not wanting to loose northern Thracia), Seliph can't just go to either Edda or Pereluke without fearing Travant chasing after him. Of course, this is the point where things will deviate A LOT.

Starting with Leif. It's true Travant might still seek him out to kill him, though now it's not a guarantee Leif will reach Fiana. To start with, from Leonster, Leif spent time in Alster, until the Empire attacked them for hiding him. Before that, Alster actually escaped unscathed from the whole thing. As Dorias states in Ch16B of Thracia, they neither helped against Travant or the Empire, and likely were left alone, if still coming under the Empire's rule, until the news got out Leif was there. Now, if Travant hears Leif is in Alster, he might do the same the Empire did, or might not. Even then, Leif's next big hiding place was Tahra, who kept their independence for a while. This likely was what made it a good place to hide, but Travant would've likely took over it instead of letting them keep their freedom for a while. Perhaps Leif might've avoided Tahra if so. After this it's hard to say if Leif would've headed into Tahra's direction or actually forced to escape into Miletos or to Darna.

Hmm, for me it's too late into the night to go further. Tomorrow I'll go over this in more detail. This was getting long already as it is. So this will do for now.

 

Edited March 19, 2019 by Acacia Sgt

[Jotari]

Raydrik turned on Ulster during a battle against Thracia, so I'm pretty sure he did sell out Leinster to Thracia in the canon. He just went and sold out Thracia as well later when the empire showed up. He's a double traitor. Almost surirising he didn't try and throw Veld under the bus by allying with Leif at the end of Thracia 776.

[Etrurian emperor]

I thought Travant did conquer the district. Its just that the empire kicked him back to Tracia again. I recall him mentioning to his son that they couldn't even beat the empire when possessing both the north and the south. 

[X-Naut]

I'd like to know what Travant would have done to Northern Thracia if he'd conquered and held it. Surely he force agricultural trade, but would he go farther out of retribution? He could turn the farms over to southern loyalists and leave the northerners starving if he wanted.

[Acacia Sgt]

17 hours ago, Jotari said:

Raydrik turned on Ulster during a battle against Thracia, so I'm pretty sure he did sell out Leinster to Thracia in the canon. He just went and sold out Thracia as well later when the empire showed up. He's a double traitor. Almost surirising he didn't try and throw Veld under the bus by allying with Leif at the end of Thracia 776.

Well, perhaps there was a limit to the extent he was willing to go to secure a position of power. Besides, I really doubt Leif would've accepted him, and quite likely, Raydrick himself knew that as well.

12 hours ago, Etrurian emperor said:

I thought Travant did conquer the district. Its just that the empire kicked him back to Tracia again. I recall him mentioning to his son that they couldn't even beat the empire when possessing both the north and the south. 

Yep, that's pretty much what happened.

10 hours ago, X-Naut said:

I'd like to know what Travant would have done to Northern Thracia if he'd conquered and held it. Surely he force agricultural trade, but would he go farther out of retribution? He could turn the farms over to southern loyalists and leave the northerners starving if he wanted.

If he ever seeks retribution, it's going to be viscious-cycle style. At his own initiative, Travant isn't likely to make things harsh for northern Tracians, as he'd see them as compatriots, and he does want to see the peninsula united. On the other hand, his actions in taking over the place, which he's aware of how they'd paint him in the eyes of everybody, aren't going to leave northern Tracians happy with him. Travant might spent the first years after 760 trying to instill order in the region, as people in the north may seek to revolt. At this point it's hard to say how that could go, but it could be a back-and-forth that may go on for years, and always dangerously coming to close to drag Grannvale into the mix. This is a reason Leif's story might not change that much as he'd still have the desire to free his homeland. Just from the southern Thracians this time around, not the Empire.

[Rapier]

I think the only way Travant could stay on the game would be by stalling Grannvale's advances as much as he could. Alvis was busy with his conquest, after all, although he'd be finished by the time Seliph is going on about with his rebellion. I can imagine the Empire retaking northern Thracia, but with Travant actually managing to defend himself well within his capital, because of the tricky terrain advantage. The Empire could pretend they care about Thracia slightly but limit themselves to corner Travant, instead of bothering with the effort of funding an invasion only to lose men and supplies for a (comparatively) punny nation without resources.

I'd also enjoy if Seliph had to pick between Leif or Travant's help against Grannvale, having to ditch one over another on a single playthrough (I imagine Seliph sides with Leif on canon, but still).

[Jotari]

1 hour ago, Rapier said:

I think the only way Travant could stay on the game would be by stalling Grannvale's advances as much as he could. Alvis was busy with his conquest, after all, although he'd be finished by the time Seliph is going on about with his rebellion. I can imagine the Empire retaking northern Thracia, but with Travant actually managing to defend himself well within his capital, because of the tricky terrain advantage. The Empire could pretend they care about Thracia slightly but limit themselves to corner Travant, instead of bothering with the effort of funding an invasion only to lose men and supplies for a (comparatively) punny nation without resources.

I'd also enjoy if Seliph had to pick between Leif or Travant's help against Grannvale, having to ditch one over another on a single playthrough (I imagine Seliph sides with Leif on canon, but still).

It would be a wonderfully difficult choice to make. That's the sort of shit Fates should have given us.

[Acacia Sgt]

That would've been cool. Then again, they likely would've had Travant be a bit different, and not do much of what he did, to make it feasable to be a consideration against Leif.

[Jotari]

6 hours ago, Acacia Sgt said:

That would've been cool. Then again, they likely would've had Travant be a bit different, and not do much of what he did, to make it feasable to be a consideration against Leif.

He's still have to kill Cuan and get Athena and the Game Bolg for the set up to work though. Otherwise no one would have likely been invading Leinster.

[Acacia Sgt]

3 hours ago, Jotari said:

He's still have to kill Cuan and get Athena and the Game Bolg for the set up to work though. Otherwise no one would have likely been invading Leinster.

Well, it doesn't have to be Travant himself doing the deed. Like, Altena and the spear can still be captured and simply sent to Travant. That way you avoid him being the one directly responsible for that, which eliminates some (but not all) of the detriment of why would Seliph (and the player) could choose him over Leif.

[Jotari]

3 minutes ago, Acacia Sgt said:

Well, it doesn't have to be Travant himself doing the deed. Like, Altena and the spear can still be captured and simply sent to Travant. That way you avoid him being the one directly responsible for that, which eliminates some (but not all) of the detriment of why would Seliph (and the player) could choose him over Leif.

Nah, I disagree. The whole point of making it a hard choice is that Travant's a pretty bad guy who could be massively useful. Making him basically innocent of all wrong doing except usurping Leif makes it a relatively easy decision of "Sorry Leif, I'm going with the guy with the army." He'd be the obvious better choice.

[Acacia Sgt]

3 minutes ago, Jotari said:

Nah, I disagree. The whole point of making it a hard choice is that Travant's a pretty bad guy who could be massively useful. Making him basically innocent of all wrong doing except usurping Leif makes it a relatively easy decision of "Sorry Leif, I'm going with the guy with the army." He'd be the obvious better choice.

That does not make him innocent of all wrong. His ruthless conquest of the Manster District can remain, with Leif still trying to mount a rebellion.

[Rapier]

I think Trabant could strike a deal with Seliph in that case, giving Northern Thracia to Altena when the war is over in exchange for an arranged married between her and Areonne. In the end, Trabant (and Cuan's) grandchild would inherit both countries, which might be fair enough for him? The difference would be that Seliph would be backing up Altena instead of Leif as the rightful heir, but he still loses the later's support because it's still seen as "giving Lenster to Thracia".

[Eryon]

Asking if Seliph's rebels would ally with Trabant in this scenario would be better described as asking if Lewyn says to do so. And how he would act in regards to Leif in this world (remember, Augustus was under his orders).

Lewyn should see the pros and cons. He'd see that while Trabant might have the advantage in sheer force, he earned the enmity of the north through his murder Quan with Ethlyn. Which while might not matter in the quick, will matter when sorting out the peninsula.

Edited March 21, 2019 by Eryon

[Jotari]

12 hours ago, Acacia Sgt said:

That does not make him innocent of all wrong. His ruthless conquest of the Manster District can remain, with Leif still trying to mount a rebellion.

Of course, but basically removing all the evidence of his brutality means he stops looking brutal in the eyes of the player.

50 minutes ago, Eryon said:

Asking if Seliph's rebels would ally with Trabant in this scenario would be better described as asking if Lewyn says to do so. And how he would act in regards to Leif in this world (remember, Augustus was under his orders).

Lewyn should see the pros and cons. He'd see that while Trabant might have the advantage in sheer force, he earned the enmity of the north through his murder Quan with Ethlyn. Which while might not matter in the quick, will matter when sorting out the peninsula.

I doubt Lewyn, or rather Forseti would care all that much about the long term of the peninsula if it meant vanquishing Loptyr.

[Acacia Sgt]

3 minutes ago, Jotari said:

Of course, but basically removing all the evidence of his brutality means he stops looking brutal in the eyes of the player.

I doubt Lewyn, or rather Forseti would care all that much about the long term of the peninsula if it meant vanquishing Loptyr.

Well, I didn't said to remove all. Just enough so people in this hypothetical scenario for the game to consider choosing him. Like how the point of the Nohr choice in Fates is that Corrin is staying with his adopted siblings, who in turn aren't on the same level (to various degrees depending on the sibling) as people like Garon, Hans, or Iago. As things are already kinda stacked to Hoshido's favor as it is, so Nohr still has to offer something. Anyway, it was just the discussion of a hypothetical.

Maybe, though the now is important, and in the now Travant has both Holy Bloods that come from the peninsula at his disposal (as I'd assume they soon learn about Altena soon enough as in the original scenario). Lewyn would consider that, at least.

[Jotari]

6 hours ago, Acacia Sgt said:

Well, I didn't said to remove all. Just enough so people in this hypothetical scenario for the game to consider choosing him. Like how the point of the Nohr choice in Fates is that Corrin is staying with his adopted siblings, who in turn aren't on the same level (to various degrees depending on the sibling) as people like Garon, Hans, or Iago. As things are already kinda stacked to Hoshido's favor as it is, so Nohr still has to offer something. Anyway, it was just the discussion of a hypothetical.

Maybe, though the now is important, and in the now Travant has both Holy Bloods that come from the peninsula at his disposal (as I'd assume they soon learn about Altena soon enough as in the original scenario). Lewyn would consider that, at least.

Well what specifically would you remove then. Because all we see from Travant before this hypothetical scenario occurs is him sending mercenaries to attack Sigurd on Agustria and Grannvale's behalf and killing Quan/Ethlyn. That's not actually a lot to start with. Even in the canon game Seliph questions why he can't make an alliance with Travant.

[Tetragrammaton]

13 hours ago, Jotari said:

Well what specifically would you remove then. Because all we see from Travant before this hypothetical scenario occurs is him sending mercenaries to attack Sigurd on Agustria and Grannvale's behalf and killing Quan/Ethlyn. That's not actually a lot to start with. Even in the canon game Seliph questions why he can't make an alliance with Travant.

Why not add more about his brutality ?

Choosing between a super weak good guy vs a super strong bad guy is more interesting.

[Jotari]

48 minutes ago, Tetragrammaton said:

Why not add more about his brutality ?

Choosing between a super weak good guy vs a super strong bad guy is more interesting.

Well that was my stance from the start.