How well do you think Three Houses is going to sell?

[Von Ithipathachai]

I've been seeing considerable negativity and suspicion here (including some from myself) surrounding what we know about Three Houses so far, understandable after the hype of Fates and the ensuing disappointment.  However, elsewhere I go (namely YouTube, Discord, and DeviantArt) still shows considerable excitement.

I guess the point I'm trying to make is that I'm having difficulty gauging how excited people are about the game, and therefore I'm also worried it's not going to sell well.  I've expressed concerns of this game being the series's "Calling All Stations" in contrast to Awakening and Fates being its "Invisible Touch" and "We Can't Dance" respectively.  (For those of you not in the know, Invisible Touch and We Can't Dance are Genesis's most commercial and well-known albums, while Calling All Stations ended up doing poorly by comparison and effectively killed the band.)

Maybe it'll do well simply by virtue of being a new first/second-party Switch title, but I'm still unsure.  What do you guys think is going to happen?

Edited April 24, 2019 by Von Ithipathachai

[NinjaMonkey]

It won't be doing Mario/Zelda/Pokemon levels of sales, that's for sure..

[Von Ithipathachai]

3 minutes ago, NinjaMonkey said:

It won't be doing Mario/Zelda/Pokemon levels of sales, that's for sure..

I'm treating "selling well" as relative to expectations.  Even though Shadows of Valentia is the worst-selling 3DS game in terms of sheer numbers, it still met sales expectations and Nintendo even described it as "popular" in one of their financial reports, if I remember correctly.

[Armchair General]

This is how I feel about 3H

[TheDreamReturns]

Given the attention the series now has thanks to Awakening, Fates, Smash Bros. and Heroes, I'd say the franchise doesn't need to worry about sales in the slightest.

 

Edited April 24, 2019 by TheDreamReturns

[AnonymousSpeed]

6 minutes ago, Von Ithipathachai said:

I've been seeing considerable negativity and suspicion here (including some from myself) surrounding what we know about Three Houses so far, understandable after the hype of Fates and the ensuing disappointment.  However, elsewhere I go (namely YouTube, Discord, and DeviantArt) still shows considerable excitement.

Well duh, my dude. We're Fire Emblem fans. Hating on Fire Emblem is what we do.

I think Three Houses has the potential to move a million copies, that's a benchmark I expect it to hit pretty easily. Somehow, Fire Emblem has become one of Nintendo's more recognizable franchises.

Fates sold somewhere in the 1.5-2 million range across all versions. Three Houses seems like it will appeal to the Fates crowd, which I mean in a much less derogatory way than it sounds, and the Switch is still going strong. I understand that Fates has 3 versions, which definitely inflates those numbers, but I doubt most players bought all three versions, if even two.

[Armagon]

54 minutes ago, Armchair General said:

This is how I feel about 3H

That is by far one of the most cursed images i have ever seen.
 

_________________________________________________

Anyway, i think it'll sell well. Part of the reason for that fact is that it's on Switch. Being on Switch alone has shown that in most cases, the game will sell well. Will it do Awakening and Fates numbers? Maybe. At the very least, it's definitely outselling Echoes.

[eclipse]

Unless there's a drastic shortage of Switches, I think it'll be fine.  Vocal people are going to bitch, and it'll be my job to make sure it's at a reasonable level.

The only way sales will tank IMO is if this game repeats everything that made Fates unpopular.  But from what I see so far, the art is the biggest offender, and that's highly subjective.

[Sentinel07]

Well, the trend is that most franchises are reaching new highs on Switch. Kirby Star Allies was the best selling Kirby since Super Star Ultra, Xenoblade 2 becoming the top Xenoblade game, etc.

Three Houses will likely reach the 1.5-2 million mark rather easily. It would not surprise me at all if it became the new best seller in the franchise. 

[Armchair General]

54 minutes ago, Armagon said:

That is by far one of the most cursed images i have ever seen.

That's the point.

[Lau]

I'm willing to bet it will sell around the same as Xenoblade Chronicles 2. Not in the first week, or even month, but eventually.

Of course, there's still that little bit of lingering concern, but overall, I'm positive it'll reach the 1 million mark.

[Dinar87]

I'm very confident three houses will sell amazingly well, just like all the other nintendo series' games on switch doing well.

[redlight]

All I can do really is just make guesses. I wasn't really around for when Fates was being marketed so I might lack experience or understanding of events leading up to Fates' release.

It'll do as well as Awakening, but I'm not sure about Fates level (reminder that the game was split into 2 physical copies so it'll be more bloated). The gap between Fates and TH is longer than Awakening and Fates, as those are the big titles and not Echoes, so that might have some role to play. We kinda saw what happened to SnK with it's gap between two seasons.

I feel as though the marketing has been weak, but we're getting stuff now at least leading up to the release.

There are a few things I imagine that could make the game not appealing. If it doesn't borrow elements from Awakening/Fates then it could turn off some people. There's also the box art (for people new to the franchise), but that might just be me.

I think a lot of people have grown over the years and aren't dependant on games journalist sites like IGN ("Fates is a emotional and engaging story" or whatever the meme is, it's not just that as there's an entire pile of mishaps/funnies since then) as they've started to see the flaws of their reviewing process. I think FE Youtubers will have some part to play in how many copies are sold through reviewing though it'll be a small portion of potential buyers. If the game is somehow worse than Revelations (I doubt that'll happen) then yeah, I actually see much more influence due to how despised it is among some of the more influential FE YouTubers.

This part that I'm about to mention could actually happen. There's a potential aspect (NOT CONFIRMED YET) that might actually stir up controversy. I've seen reactions to the thought of the avatar marrying students and it's ranged from indifference to denial ("there's no way they're gonna go that far lol" is what I've seen some say). I will criticise the devs for the decision of allowing the avatar to marry students (IF IT HAPPENS), but I won't get as mad as some people would.

There's also the matter of DLC. We've reached the point of no return when it comes to criticism of microtransactions in a full priced game as well as how DLC is being handled (cut-out from game yet available at launch, cheat DLC, etc.). Echoes managed to make it's way to YongYea with it's DLC pricing and timing (but it's not the first time a FE game has been criticized for it's DLC) so if a game that's supposedly much bigger than Echoes makes it's round then I can see him swaying people not to buy the game. He won't say don't buy the thing, but the game will have a stigma from the criticism. And it's not just only him, there'll be others spreading information about it.

There are some that are skeptical bcs Fates so they might just wait a bit to see people's reviews on YouTube or something though those within the FE fanbase will gravitate towards experienced FE YouTubers

Edited April 24, 2019 by redlight

[Rose482]

I think for sure it will sell better than FE15, but will it reach FE13/FE14 levels? Hmmm....I think it COULD, FE as a series has been only getting more popular after all.

 

[Michelaar]

I think we won't need to worry much about sales. I've already seen lots of fans who played Awakening and Fates (but not echoes) saying they will buy this game and are very excited for it.

[Roland]

My gut tells me it'll reach 1 million. A lot of big titles for the Switch have been doing well sales wise, and despite what I and others might say about them, Awakening and Fates have made Fire Emblem more popular. Unless this game somehow is worse than all of the flaws of Awakening and Fates (which I'll laugh my ass off if that happens), this game should be fine.

Edited April 24, 2019 by Roland

[thecrimsonflash]

I'm not concerned about sales, but it may do worse than awakening, it just seems to have way less mass appeal than the 3ds games, especially in the art being darker and less welcoming.

[Thane]

I would say it depends on the final push. Many Switch games have done very well and a meaty title like we can only assume Three Houses will be has no reason not to follow suit. If they can make a few exciting trailers in time for the expo and E3 to build some hype, and then manage to keep it going into July, then I'm sure sales will be great. 

I mean, Octopath Traveler sold over one million copies. Not that that game wasn't great or didn't have good things going for it leading up to its release, but I think a growing series like Fire Emblem should be able to top that easily. 

I hope they have events in Heroes to market the release of the game. 

[𝐅𝐞𝐧𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐥]

8 hours ago, Von Ithipathachai said:

I've been seeing considerable negativity and suspicion here (including some from myself) surrounding what we know about Three Houses so far, understandable after the hype of Fates and the ensuing disappointment.  However, elsewhere I go (namely YouTube, Discord, and DeviantArt) still shows considerable excitement.

I guess the point I'm trying to make is that I'm having difficulty gauging how excited people are about the game, and therefore I'm also worried it's not going to sell well.  I've expressed concerns of this game being the series's "Calling All Stations" in contrast to Awakening and Fates being its "Invisible Touch" and "We Can't Dance" respectively.  (For those of you not in the know, Invisible Touch and We Can't Dance are Genesis's most commercial and well-known albums, while Calling All Stations ended up doing poorly by comparison and effectively killed the band.)

Maybe it'll do well simply by virtue of being a new first/second-party Switch title, but I'm still unsure.  What do you guys think is going to happen?

i think it will sell alright, just not as much as Awakening or Fates.

i know it may sounds bad, but the art and visuals overall have always played a part in selling a game, especially when it's about a title from a long-running franchise.

artists such as Mayumi Hirota, Sachiko Wada, Yusuke Kozaki and Hidari have always managed to create characters with their own personality that not only felt "alive", but were also part of old tales and legends.

the new art style is clearly in contrast with all previous artists that worked on FE titles, simply because it gives a way different vibe to the game's atmosphere compared to its settings. it almost feels like having to deal with modern day characters in a medieval fantasy world, wich is very odd by itself.

as for the drawing style and the overall use of colors, i guess it's subjective for each person and i won't go through this argument again since it's been already discussed to death. some like it, some don't, some don't even care.

at this point, one can only hope for gameplay and story.

the gameplay needs to be good, wich i guess won't be a problem considering the previous games.

the story doesn't need to be a holy grail of greatness( especially because after looking at the story writing of the most recent titles, i do have my doubts ), but it has to be at least decent. doesn't matter if it's a linear story or with multiple paths, it has to be decent.

it's not only the themes of the game that will matter, but also how they will be dealt with.

Edited April 24, 2019 by Fenreir

[Thane]

19 minutes ago, Fenreir said:

the new art style is clearly in contrast with all previous artists that worked on FE titles

Can't this be a good thing? I mean I'm not exactly a big fan of the artstyle but early on people thought this was drawn by Persona's artist and Persona 5 made a very big splash. 

[know_naim]

I think a big factor will be how much of a marketing push it'll receive from Nintendo. I wouldn't be surprised if the game beats Fates sales in Japan due to cross-promotion with Heroes and positioning it as the next big Nintendo title. The setting and art style seem to be in sync with current trends, so only offensively bad gameplay could make it fail and that's not really to be expected from an IntSys production. 

In the west the TBS genre is well represented on Switch with recent indie successes like Wargroove or Into The Breach, so imo that's a good foundation for FH doing even bigger numbers when you count in the overlap with people into anime-aesthetics and the general Nintendo fanbase.

[Macaroon]

5 hours ago, Dinar87 said:

I'm very confident three houses will sell amazingly well, just like all the other nintendo series' games on switch doing well.

Yeah I agree I have a feeling a lot of new people to the series will try it and probably enjoy it

Edited April 24, 2019 by Macaroon

[𝐅𝐞𝐧𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐥]

1 hour ago, Thane said:

Can't this be a good thing? I mean I'm not exactly a big fan of the artstyle but early on people thought this was drawn by Persona's artist and Persona 5 made a very big splash.

for how i see it, no it can't. and the part in bold it's exactly the reason: it's pretty obvious that they're trying to get fans from other franchises such as Persona, since it's quite big in Japan and it sold well.

i don't know if that was planned from the beginning( if so, it's really lame ), or if someone from the art direction wanted to use a different approach in terms of game's visuals just for a change, but it's clearly not what many fans expected, and the proof of it comes from all the artworks edits we've seen around the internet in these last months.

i believe the issue here is that it just looks like a Persona rip-off in terms of visuals, wich can be either a good or bad thing depending on personal preferences, hence why it's pointless to discuss about it if not just to express an opinion for the sake of it.

as for me, i believe a game's art style should never borrow concepts from other successful games in order for a title to be interesting and popular, especially when it could and should have its own unique art and vibe. food for thought.

 

on a side note: a FE title with gameplay mechanics developed by IS, a story written by Yasumi Matsuno, and artworks done by Akihiko Yoshida would probably be an everlasting jewel of J/SRPG.

Edited April 24, 2019 by Fenreir

[Ivy Wife Supremacy]

As long as they don't mess with thing's the majority of the broad audience loves(which is extremely unlikely given what we know so far and will soon learn and they're obviously smart) and start marketing it soon (outside Japan) I expect it to do VERY well like the big 2 don't know if it'll beat Fates numbers but at least do more than Awakening but we'll see I'm very confident in it!

Edited April 24, 2019 by Regal Edelgard Axe Master

[UNLEASH IT]

If Xenoblade can break a million copies on the Switch, then so can FE.