How well do you think Three Houses is going to sell?

[Hanes]

The series has been more popular so it will sell good, it will surpass 15 but maybe not 13 or 14 since I'm willing to bet more people own Handheld systems (some even 2) than Switches.

[Zapp Branniglenn]

I don't think there's a natural force in this universe to prevent this game from being a million seller. It's a unique genre for the Switch's first party library, it will likely get some trailer time at E3. It's not competing with any major releases. There's a lot going for it and the Switch is a hot system. Double its potential sales if there's a Smash Bros DLC character from the game. Oh and if the game reviews well, it might even set a series sales record by the end of the year but that's the biggest variable. Even if the game ends up being objectively good, an IGN review bringing up the lack of romance/marriage as a "series staple" for instance could deal serious damage.

[Von Ithipathachai]

2 minutes ago, Glennstavos said:

Even if the game ends up being objectively good, an IGN review bringing up the lack of romance/marriage as a "series staple" for instance could deal serious damage.

I thought I heard somewhere that romance would be a key theme, so I doubt the game will get bad press for that reason.

[Zapp Branniglenn]

6 minutes ago, Von Ithipathachai said:

I thought I heard somewhere that romance would be a key theme, so I doubt the game will get bad press for that reason.

Nope, no concrete info on what form supports will take. And it's not necessarily "bad press". It can get a score as high as a 9.0 but review outlets still have to point toward something they think is a shortcoming. Pointing to a major missing feature would be obvious, especially when the reviewer is likely to be a newcomer to the series trying to present an informed review. 

[TheGoodHoms]

I have a feeling it's going to do well for itself. Given the franchise's current popularity it'll most definitely turn a profit for Nintendo, especially if they throw in cross-promotional material for games like Super Smash Bros. or Fire Emblem Heroes, if that happens you better believe it's gonna crack at least a million units.

[Guest Lae]

14 minutes ago, Von Ithipathachai said:

I thought I heard somewhere that romance would be a key theme, so I doubt the game will get bad press for that reason.

I believe that was reference to the jp title not that I believe it won't have any(which I'm very sure it will). Even so it will have a decent dent if that happens.

[Armagon]

12 hours ago, redlight said:

There's a potential aspect (NOT CONFIRMED YET) that might actually stir up controversy. I've seen reactions to the thought of the avatar marrying students and it's ranged from indifference to denial ("there's no way they're gonna go that far lol" is what I've seen some say). I will criticise the devs for the decision of allowing the avatar to marry students (IF IT HAPPENS), but I won't get as mad as some people would.

Honestly, even if there is controversy, that's not really gonna stop the game from selling well unless it's something super extreme. Xenoblade 2 had controversy regarding the designs of some female characters but that didn't stop the game from selling over a million copies and being supported by a very good line of DLC which also ended up selling really well. Or if you want a more Fire Emblem example, Fates had controversy regarding Soleil's Supports with Corrin and the censorship of things in general but that still didn't stop it from being the best selling FE game. Really, all controversy seems to do to games these days is just make them sell better.

If you want my personal thoughts, i wouldn't mind it if Byleth can romance his students because as far as i'm aware, they're all pretty much the same age so really, what difference does it make? This isn't like Trails of Cold Steel 3 and 4 where it's a modern fantasy setting and Rean's an adult and yet has the option of romancing his students (one of which is 15).

 

[redlight]

2 minutes ago, Armagon said:

Honestly, even if there is controversy, that's not really gonna stop the game from selling well unless it's something super extreme. Xenoblade 2 had controversy regarding the designs of some female characters but that didn't stop the game from selling over a million copies and being supported by a very good line of DLC which also ended up selling really well. Or if you want a more Fire Emblem example, Fates had controversy regarding Soleil's Supports with Corrin and the censorship of things in general but that still didn't stop it from being the best selling FE game. Really, all controversy seems to do to games these days is just make them sell better.

If you want my personal thoughts, i wouldn't mind it if Byleth can romance his students because as far as i'm aware, they're all pretty much the same age so really, what difference does it make? This isn't like Trails of Cold Steel 3 and 4 where it's a modern fantasy setting and Rean's an adult and yet has the option of romancing his students (one of which is 15).

 

I don't think it'll have that much of an impact, but it'll make the rounds in articles and such. And even then, Fates was split into two games so it's success is kinda unique. But FE hasn't had good DLC, that's for sure. I think the more PC complaints don't have that much of an impact compared to just regular criticism of games that the average joe has.

[Armagon]

11 minutes ago, redlight said:

I don't think it'll have that much of an impact, but it'll make the rounds in articles and such.

Which has the indirect effect of promoting the game, even if that wasn't the article's intent. 

13 minutes ago, redlight said:

And even then, Fates was split into two games so it's success is kinda unique.

Isn't Fates' sales all counted as one though? Though you are right that it's situation is correct.

14 minutes ago, redlight said:

I think the more PC complaints don't have that much of an impact compared to just regular criticism of games that the average joe has.

I'd say that it does have an impact but in the way that it'd probably make the game sell better. A lot of PC complaints these days are retarded (bonus points if it came from ResetEra) and are usually made by people who don't actually care about the game they're complaining about; they just want woke points. So when people see these PC complaints, they take it as a sign that the game is actually fine and they end even more interested in the game. Of course, that's just what i've seen but either way, PC complaints aren't gonna stop a game from selling well.

[redlight]

9 minutes ago, Armagon said:

Which has the indirect effect of promoting the game, even if that wasn't the article's intent. 

I'd say that it does have an impact but in the way that it'd probably make the game sell better. A lot of PC complaints these days are retarded (bonus points if it came from ResetEra) and are usually made by people who don't actually care about the game they're complaining about; they just want woke points. So when people see these PC complaints, they take it as a sign that the game is actually fine and they end even more interested in the game. Of course, that's just what i've seen but either way, PC complaints aren't gonna stop a game from selling well.

Yeah. People that make a huge fuss just end up promoting the damn thing. If there's something you don't want people to play or get any attention at all then just silently report it or something. You're potentially creating an audience for something you might see as unsavory or offensive

The idea that it affect sales somewhat was a bit half-baked idea that I should've let my brain "cook" more. But if the game will have a 100$ DLC like DOA at launch that the average joe can relate to then I could see there being an issue. Echoes had DLC at launch that costed more than the base game. I hope IS for their own sake don't do something on the level of Koei/TeamNinja

Edited April 24, 2019 by redlight

[Armagon]

3 minutes ago, redlight said:

Echoes had DLC at launch that costed more than the base game. I hope IS for their own sake don't do something on the level of Koei/TeamNinja

Oh definitely. IS keeps overpricing their DLC when the content isn't even worth half the price. Like for Echoes, the only DLC that was worth buying was the Rise of Deliverance maps and the Cipher characters and even then, that shouldn't have cost more than $10. At the very least, they haven't gone EA yet because that's honestly worse than going Koei/Team Ninja but if 3H will get one big piece of criticism, overpriced DLC will definitely be it, assuming they do it in the first place.

[Sentinel07]

5 hours ago, Glennstavos said:

I don't think there's a natural force in this universe to prevent this game from being a million seller. It's a unique genre for the Switch's first party library, it will likely get some trailer time at E3. It's not competing with any major releases. There's a lot going for it and the Switch is a hot system. Double its potential sales if there's a Smash Bros DLC character from the game. Oh and if the game reviews well, it might even set a series sales record by the end of the year but that's the biggest variable. Even if the game ends up being objectively good, an IGN review bringing up the lack of romance/marriage as a "series staple" for instance could deal serious damage.

Oh god....that terrible Echoes review from IGN.

"I'll take off a point here since I can't pair Celica with Saber". Pretty clear that reviewer's mind was in the gutter.

[Disclaimer]

It will be the best-selling entry in the franchise by a safe margin, I'd say. The Switch has had a consistent and powerful effect on software sales, particularly for Nintendo's first party and published output. 

Given the last numbers we had place Fates at ~3 million, I'd speculate that Three Houses will do ~3.5 - 5 million over time, depending on various factors, including the game's quality and resulting word of mouth. 

Worth noting is that the Switch's ever-expanding userbase will see further growth this year via the rumored hardware iterations — the handheld-only variant of which is said to be releasing "as early as summer," i.e. around the time Three Houses comes out. So that should boost things quite nicely, luring in extant 3DS owners, Fire Emblem fans currently without a Switch, and/or people looking for a cheaper entry point for themselves or their children. 

There's also runaway successful Fire Emblem Heroes to consider, which will only have positive effects on the main series' future sales. A safe bet there'll heavy promotion of Three Houses there, and many people drawn to the series via the mobile game will see Three Houses as a convenient opportunity to try the main series. 

Did I mention Three Houses' artwork, done by the popular otome artist Chinatsu Kurahana? Considering the Switch's ownership demographics have reached 50:50 parity between men and women, I'd say her hiring her is a calculated and intelligent move — even if her art is divisive amongst existing fans (...as all art has been lately...). Releasing in the same year is Animal Crossing, a series also popular with female audiences, so that ratio should stay strong or skew further female — which is good for Fire Emblem, and god willing will help reduce the series' recent inclination toward objectifying women and girls.

Edited April 25, 2019 by Disclaimer

[Guest Chungus OP]

13 minutes ago, Disclaimer said:

It will be the best-selling entry in the franchise by a safe margin, I'd say. The Switch has had a consistent and powerful effect on software sales, particularly for Nintendo's first party and published output. 

Given the last numbers we had place Fates at ~3 million, I'd speculate that Three Houses will do ~3.5 - 5 million over time, depending on various factors, including the game's quality and resulting word of mouth. 

Worth noting is that the Switch's ever-expanding userbase will see further growth this year via the rumored hardware iterations — the handheld-only variant of which is said to be releasing "as early as summer," i.e. around the time Three Houses comes out. So that should boost things quite nicely, luring in extant 3DS owners, Fire Emblem fans currently without a Switch, and/or people looking for a cheaper entry point for themselves or their children. 

There's also runaway successful Fire Emblem Heroes to consider, which will only have positive effects on the main series' future sales. A safe bet there'll heavy promotion of Three Houses there, and many people drawn to the series via the mobile game will see Three Houses as a convenient opportunity to try the main series. 

Did I mention Three Houses' artwork, done by the popular otome artist Chinatsu Kurahana? Considering the Switch's ownership demographics have reached 50:50 parity between men and women, I'd say her hiring her is a calculated and intelligent move — even if her art is divisive amongst existing fans (...as all art has been lately...). Releasing in the same year is Animal Crossing, a series also popular with female audiences, so that ratio should stay strong or skew further female — which is good for Fire Emblem, and god willing will help reduce the series' recent inclination toward objectifying women and girls.

First off where did you get the switch ratio? I'm pretty sure it's majorly male there same for FE I'll give you AC though. I don't see how a female artist(JP btw) has anything to do with "changing" they do as they please in their own style and do what they're told to do....You seem to be trying to start something with this whole "objectify" agenga that's common in a "specific" group of people I recommend not to starting something you clearly know you can't finish.....

[Disclaimer]

10 minutes ago, Guest Chungus OP said:

First off where did you get the switch ratio? I'm pretty sure it's majorly male there same for FE I'll give you AC though. I don't see how a female artist(JP btw) has anything to do with "changing" they do as they please in their own style and do what they're told to do....You seem to be trying to start something with this whole "objectify" agenga that's common in a "specific" group of people I recommend not to starting something you clearly know you can't finish.....

Here are North American figures via an analytics group:

https://www.eedar.com/eedar-blog/2018-q4-round-up

Quote

The early demographic for the Switch was heavily skewed, with males accounting for 70% of the of the player base. Over time this has shifted over to an almost 50/50 split between males and females, much more in line with what you would expect from console player bases from the PS4 and Xbox One. In fact, the Switch skews slightly more towards females than either of the other two consoles, which have averaged a 55% male split.

You come off as fairly uninformed and troll-y with your talk of "agendas," so I'll not bother to engage further, especially since you're posting as a guest. 

[Jedi]

Fire Emblem Warriors managed a million copies, and it was a spinoff. I think 3H will do fine unless IS finds someway to utterly crash expectations of the casual base (that places like SF, reddit and the like do not really represent). 

Edited April 25, 2019 by Jedi

[BrightBow]

At this point I would imagine that Fire Emblem games besides Heroes mostly exists to introduce new character designs to put on dakimakura or whatever other merch. So I don't think it's sales are all that important.

[Jedi]

7 minutes ago, BrightBow said:

At this point I would imagine that Fire Emblem games besides Heroes mostly exists to introduce new character designs to put on dakimakura or whatever other merch. So I don't think it's sales are all that important.

Did you really have to make a comment like this? I mean I know you hate everything past your precious earlier era FE, I dno why you even stick around.

[BrightBow]

14 minutes ago, Jedi said:

Did you really have to make a comment like this? I mean I know you hate everything past your precious earlier era FE, I dno why you even stick around.

Of course I didn't have to make a comment like this? What kind of question is that to ask on a video game forum of all places? If people were only posting what they were forced to say, no one would post anything here.

Also, man, calling me a hater to dismiss what I said. You don't have it actually in you to tell me I am simply wrong?

Edited April 25, 2019 by BrightBow

[The DanMan]

1.5-2 million.

The vocal minority of the fanbase doesn't mean jack shit.
FEW breaking a million should tell people that by now.

12 hours ago, BrightBow said:

At this point I would imagine that Fire Emblem games besides Heroes mostly exists to introduce new character designs to put on dakimakura or whatever other merch. So I don't think it's sales are all that important.

Hey guys, I found the edgelord.

 

[Guest This Guy]

'Shrugs'

[Zapp Branniglenn]

Quick fact check for the Fire Emblem Warriors barometer people are using. That game shipped 1 million units, nowhere did KT say it sold 1 million units. They were also including the 3DS version. If Fire Emblem Warriors had sold 1 million on Switch, I feel like somebody would brag about it.

[Cysx]

I'm actually starting to worry a bit. The only thing people seem to want to talk about is the presentation, and they are generally displeased with it. While I can't say if that will stop them from buying the game as fans, this way of thought could make it an easy skip for those with only a passing interest. This game generates almost no hype whatsoever, and that's not good. At all.

I mean on a personal level I'm pretty frustrated that people are reacting that way(I didn't foresee it, but I suppose spending two years complaining about Heroes maybe didn't put us in the best mindset), but that's beside the point, because I'm certainly not buying a million copies on my own.

Edited April 26, 2019 by Cysx

[Jedi]

1 hour ago, Cysx said:

I'm actually starting to worry a bit. The only thing people seem to want to talk about is the presentation, and they are generally displeased with it.

SF and Reddit are by no means the majority. I seem to recall Xenoblade 2 making records for it's series despite all the screeching about it's character design and how it wasn't Xeno 1. 

I don't think you need to worry about what you see on the internet, because it's usually vocal people being crybabies. 

[Cysx]

32 minutes ago, Jedi said:

SF and Reddit are by no means the majority. I seem to recall Xenoblade 2 making records for it's series despite all the screeching about it's character design and how it wasn't Xeno 1. 

I don't think you need to worry about what you see on the internet, because it's usually vocal people being crybabies. 

I mean, you're not wrong. I don't recall Fates' pre-release being nearly that bad, though. Idk.

Edit: Though yes, having been through Warrior's pre-release as one of its few vocal supporters, I suppose you would know what you're talking about here.

Edited April 26, 2019 by Cysx