June New Heroes Banner Predictions

[Fabulously Olivier]

It's worth saying that the nature of content development for a live game would not have them start developing the June banner after the May banner launches. Typically, a game company will have multiple patches in development simultaneously and in different states of completion by different teams.

 

That's how you, for example, get Fates saturation. It isn't one team deciding to do one Fates banner after another. It's multiple simultaneous banners in development, and a disproprotionate number just happen to be Fates.

Edited May 16, 2019 by Etheus

[Gregster101]

2 hours ago, Othin said:

I'm guessing FE7. Seems like a good time for it, with its number of noteworthy characters still missing. I'd prefer FE4/5 but I don't think that's as likely.

I think it's too soon for Three Houses, and I don't think FE2 is very pressing at this point. It's got most of its playable cast already, and is continuing to get fleshed out with occasional 1-offs like Kliff and Duma.

If it's Anankos, it's probably a connection to the current Fallen Heroes banner, not something next month. And as we've seen with Duma and Alm, sometimes there's no connection anyway.

Incidentally, the fact that neither of those were tied to an FE2 banner suggests there probably isn't one coming soon anyway.

I still think it's deserving of another banner though.

[Kiran_]

I don't understand how having the unprompted main 3 Lords + Byleth constitutes as "spoilers". We already have descriptions of their personalities and it's not incredibly hard to make generic statements for their level ups. Why would reading, "Oh no, I need to try harder" suddenly spoil the plot and game?

Not to mention the Forging Bonds could just be an Askr related conflict which just expands upon their personality descriptions we already have.

Personally, I could see a multiple game new heroes banner with another theme, SoV or Three Houses. Though for what I WANT, I'd say SoV or Three Houses for the hype. I'd be super excited to get Three Houses characters a month early.

 

 

[Othin]

14 minutes ago, Gregster101 said:

I still think it's deserving of another banner though.

I mean, I agree, but I don't think it's more deserving than FE4, 5, 7, 8, or 9/10 right now. Or Three Houses when it's actually time for that.

[X-Naut]

4 hours ago, colossus86 said:

I wouldn't be so sure IS would actually roll out 3Hs content a month in advance. I know we have SoV to go on, but that game was a remake and IS have basically bent over backwards to not reveal the plot of 3Hs. We don't even know the game's central conflict.

Also does the timing really work out with the E3 thing? The banner comes out on the day of the presentation if I'm not mistaken, which means the reveal trailer would be a couple days prior. That would be... strange.

That's my thoughts on it too, we'll probably get hit with 3H banners starting in July and over the rest of 2019.

[Vince777]

I would hate for there to be a 3H banner before I even know anything whatsoever about the characters, even it they were careful not to include spoilers.

 

[Lord-Zero]

Betting on Fates and hoping for TMS #FE. It’s still too early for 3H content. Leave that for July. 

[Interdimensional Observer]

6 hours ago, Ottservia said:

Personally I don’t think it’s the lack of people caring when it comes to echoes. It’s the lack of characters. I mean I don’t have the exact numbers(though @Interdimensional Observer Probably does) but I’m pretty sure we’re missing a total of maybe 8-10 characters from that game and that’s only enough for about two banners.

Haven't updated my representation topic since the Gallians, and I might be so lazy and the topic a little tedious to edit due to size so I'll hold off until the next New Heroes to load in the Seasonals + Fallen Heroes 2.

But I do have SoV's representation numbers available:

• 34 playable characters, 38 with the Cipher quartet.
• So far, we have 20 non-alt SoV playables (no real reason not to count the Whitewings):

Spoiler

1. Alm
2. Celica
3. Saber
4. Mae
5. Boey
6. Genny
7. Leon
8. Lukas
9. Grey
10. Tobin
11. Kliff
12. Clive
13. Clair
14. Mathilda
15. Palla
16. Catria
17. Est
18. Delthea
19. Sonya
20. Faye

• 20/34 is 58.82%, 20/38 = 52.63%.

This means as a percentage of its playable roster, Shadows of Valentia is second only to Fates: 45/70 = 64.29% (counts the Kanas and Corrins separately, not counting Bride Charlotte as Charlotte). Awakening has more playable characters than SoV, but just barely a smaller percentage of its total roster sans Cipher 29/51 = 56.86% (not counting Selena as Severa, Laslow/PA Inigo as Inigo, nor Swim Noire as Noire).

Sacred Stones, the spiritual sequel to Gaiden, has a similar-sized roster of 33, but only 11 non-Creature Campaign (so Lyon and Valter don't count) playables in so far.

 

Of the remaining SoV characters, only Silque and Tatiana are female- two women for twelve men, and outside of Gallia, this game has preferred Polygyny to Polyandry. So it's wholly possible the next SoV NH could be the last, so each of the remaining men has only a 25% chance (assuming two on the banner plus GHB character) of not sinking into the poisoned abyss called the Mire of Eternal Obscurity where Arcanist-spammed Gargoyles go to defecate on you.

Even if we say they do two Gallias, that'll only get in 8 of the 12 remaining men. Which of the men in this scenario will later have their remains turned into petrol when industrialized 19XX Valm needs to use the ancient fossilized Gargoyle feces to fuel their Walhart W3 heavy tanks? Mycen and Nomah are likely, but the other two are in the air- Python and Forsyth maybe? Unless Clive is successful at adopting them and then using that to make family reunification claims. Or why not Kamui? Another Sword Infantry is not high on FEH's needs list, nor is he Silque's savior like Jesse. Deen of Nice Background in an Artbook could be another cut Sword Infantry guy.

Edited May 16, 2019 by Interdimensional Observer

[XRay]

7 minutes ago, Interdimensional Observer said:

Of the remaining SoV characters, only Silque and Tatiana are female- two woman for twelve men, and outside of Gallia, this game has preferred Polygyny to Polyandry. So it's wholly possible the next SoV NH could be the last, so each of the remaining men has only a 25% chance (assuming two on the banner plus GHB character) of not sinking into the poisoned abyss called the Mire of Eternal Obscurity where Arcanist-spammed Gargoyles go to defecate on you.

Maybe they might release alts for existing female units and then get the rest of the men in that way, kind of like the The Branded Kind Focus where they released an alt for Chrom while introducing the Morgans.

[Fabulously Olivier]

2 minutes ago, Interdimensional Observer said:

Haven't updated my representation topic since the Gallians, and I might be so lazy and the topic a little tedious to edit due to size so I'll hold off until the next New Heroes to load in the Seasonals + Fallen Heroes 2.

But I do have SoV's representation numbers available:

• 34 playable characters, 38 with the Cipher quartet.
• So far, we have 20 non-alt SoV playables (no real reason not to count the Whitewings):

  Reveal hidden contents

1. Alm
2. Celica
3. Saber
4. Mae
5. Boey
6. Genny
7. Leon
8. Lukas
9. Grey
10. Tobin
11. Kliff
12. Clive
13. Clair
14. Mathilda
15. Palla
16. Catria
17. Est
18. Delthea
19. Sonya
20. Faye

• 20/34 is 58.82%, 20/38 = 52.63%.

This means as a percentage of its playable roster, Shadows of Valentia is second only to Fates: 45/70 = 64.29% (counts the Kanas and Corrins separately, not counting Bride Charlotte as Charlotte). Awakening has more playable characters than SoV, but just barely a smaller percentage of its total roster 29/51 = 56.86% (not counting Selena as Severa, Laslow/PA Inigo as Inigo, nor Swim Noire as Noire).

Magvel, the spiritual sequel to Gaiden, has a similar-sized roster of 33, but only 11 non-Creature Campaign (so Lyon and Valter don't count) playables in so far.

 

Of the remaining SoV characters, only Silque and Tatiana are female- two woman for twelve men, and outside of Gallia, this game has preferred Polygyny to Polyandry. So it's wholly possible the next SoV NH could be the last, so each of the remaining men has only a 25% chance (assuming two on the banner plus GHB character) of not sinking into the poisoned abyss called the Mire of Eternal Obscurity where Arcanist-spammed Gargoyles go to defecate on you.

Even if we say they do two Gallias, that'll only get in 8 of the 12 remaining men. Which of the men in this scenario will later have their remains turned into petrol when industrialized 19XX Valm needs to use the ancient fossilized Gargoyle feces to fuel their Walhart W3 heavy tanks? Mycen and Nomah are likely, but the other two are in the air- Python and Forsyth maybe? Unless Clive is successful at adopting them and then using that to make family reunification claims. Or why not Kamui? Another Sword Infantry is not high on FEH's needs list, nor is he Silque's savior like Jesse. Deen of Nice Background in an Artbook could be another cut Sword Infantry guy.

This is why I don't get all of the clamoring for SoV banners. It's really well represented. Not to say that I wouldn't mind more (hello, I'm a hypocrite because I still REALLY want Zeke, Luthier, Python, and Conrad), but it has better representation than say... Sacred Stones, Geneology, or Thracia.

[escotanner]

5 hours ago, Etheus said:

You misunderstand me. I'm predicting a FE4 making to be announced. Not stating that one has been.

Oh. Well, I hope there is a remake in the works.

[Interdimensional Observer]

15 minutes ago, Etheus said:

but it has better representation than say... Sacred Stones, Genealogy, or Thracia.

If exclude the Subs, (and given Lene got Sylvia's weapon and Sylvia got Laylea's weapon, it is wholly believable), FE4 has 48 PCs- 24 per Generation (not counting Finn twice (even though Young Finn would be a reasonable canon alt to me)).:

Of the 48 PCs, so far we have 18, including Finn, Leif, and Nanna. 18/48 = 37.5% of the Genealogy roster. In the Generational divide, we have 12 Gen 1s counting Finn as a Gen 1- exactly half, and 6 of Gen 2- a quarter of them. That isn't surprising to me, Gen 1's cast is on the whole more developed than Gen 2's.

 

Want to hear a joke? What game excluding the new possessed girl has only 5/51 = 9.8% of its playables in this game? Thracia 776! And here is the real kicker- only two (Saias and Olwen) aren't in Genealogy! 

 

16 minutes ago, XRay said:

Maybe they might release alts for existing female units and then get the rest of the men in that way, kind of like the The Branded Kind Focus where they released an alt for Chrom while introducing the Morgans.

That honestly wouldn't be a bad idea- but only once they use up Tatiana and Silque. Once they do, Harrier Clair can take to the air in my books, -if she has room to fly the remaining men. The way I worded it reminds me of an old ~70s commercial where a young flight attendant named Jennifer promises to give you the viewer "The best flight you've ever had" with the commercial ending with the lines "Fly Jeniffer, fly National.".

Edited May 16, 2019 by Interdimensional Observer

[Ottservia]

27 minutes ago, Interdimensional Observer said:

Haven't updated my representation topic since the Gallians, and I might be so lazy and the topic a little tedious to edit due to size so I'll hold off until the next New Heroes to load in the Seasonals + Fallen Heroes 2.

But I do have SoV's representation numbers available:

• 34 playable characters, 38 with the Cipher quartet.
• So far, we have 20 non-alt SoV playables (no real reason not to count the Whitewings):

  Reveal hidden contents

1. Alm
2. Celica
3. Saber
4. Mae
5. Boey
6. Genny
7. Leon
8. Lukas
9. Grey
10. Tobin
11. Kliff
12. Clive
13. Clair
14. Mathilda
15. Palla
16. Catria
17. Est
18. Delthea
19. Sonya
20. Faye

• 20/34 is 58.82%, 20/38 = 52.63%.

This means as a percentage of its playable roster, Shadows of Valentia is second only to Fates: 45/70 = 64.29% (counts the Kanas and Corrins separately, not counting Bride Charlotte as Charlotte). Awakening has more playable characters than SoV, but just barely a smaller percentage of its total roster sans Cipher 29/51 = 56.86% (not counting Selena as Severa, Laslow/PA Inigo as Inigo, nor Swim Noire as Noire).

Sacred Stones, the spiritual sequel to Gaiden, has a similar-sized roster of 33, but only 11 non-Creature Campaign (so Lyon and Valter don't count) playables in so far.

 

Of the remaining SoV characters, only Silque and Tatiana are female- two women for twelve men, and outside of Gallia, this game has preferred Polygyny to Polyandry. So it's wholly possible the next SoV NH could be the last, so each of the remaining men has only a 25% chance (assuming two on the banner plus GHB character) of not sinking into the poisoned abyss called the Mire of Eternal Obscurity where Arcanist-spammed Gargoyles go to defecate on you.

Even if we say they do two Gallias, that'll only get in 8 of the 12 remaining men. Which of the men in this scenario will later have their remains turned into petrol when industrialized 19XX Valm needs to use the ancient fossilized Gargoyle feces to fuel their Walhart W3 heavy tanks? Mycen and Nomah are likely, but the other two are in the air- Python and Forsyth maybe? Unless Clive is successful at adopting them and then using that to make family reunification claims. Or why not Kamui? Another Sword Infantry is not high on FEH's needs list, nor is he Silque's savior like Jesse. Deen of Nice Background in an Artbook could be another cut Sword Infantry guy.

Interesting statistics that pretty much explains why we haven't gotten an echoes banner in quite some time. Honestly the best way to go about it is to just drip feed it with alts, GHBs, and the like. As for the females thing aren't you forgetting Rinea or is that not counting NPCs. Oh well at least now I have a better idea on SoV's numbers.

[Interdimensional Observer]

5 minutes ago, Ottservia said:

As for the females thing aren't you forgetting Rinea or is that not counting NPCs. Oh well at least now I have a better idea on SoV's numbers.

It wasn't counting NPCs, nor characters playable only in DLC scenarios- like Fernand. Adding in NPCs and villains makes where you stop counting who can get in more nebulous. And then Rinea would have to support the further characters of Rudolf, Jedah, Slayde, Fernand, Desaix Brigand Boss. And before you say Mila Maxwell, she is cursed to be Mythic now that Duma is and thus can't carry anyone but those already in.

Edited May 16, 2019 by Interdimensional Observer

[Sunwoo]

@Interdimensional Observer Reinhardt isn't in Genealogy either, lol. Still, 3 out of the non-alt representatives being Thracia originals certainly doesn't bode well.

If they're not going to do a dedicated Thracia banner, we should at least get more mixed game banners that are willing to drop someone and not be all-alt banners. Like a possible rivals banner, that could give us Kieran, Tethys, Elrean, and Vaike as banner units with Kempf as a GHB. That's like five people from five different games with either Elrean or Vaike built as the drop.

The only reason I'm not as annoyed about the abundance of Tellius lately is because without the laguz they weren't very well represented and didn't have that high of a percentage of units anyway. As of right now, they can take a break though.

Edited May 16, 2019 by Sunwoo

[Ottservia]

1 minute ago, Interdimensional Observer said:

It wasn't counting NPCs, nor characters playable only in DLC scenarios- like Fernand. Adding in NPCs and villains makes where you stop counting who can get in more nebulous, and then Rinea would have to support Rudolf, Jedah, Slayde, Fernand, Desaix Brigand Boss. And before you say Mila Maxwell, she is cursed to be Mythic now that Duma is and thus can't carry anyone but those already in.

I wasn't counting Mila anyway for that very reason but sheesh looks like SoV is looking to be SoL in terms of banner rep. That's what happens when you have a game where a good chunk of its revenue comes from shut-in otaku. Oh well It'll happen eventually but it'll be a very slow process.

[Othin]

25 minutes ago, XRay said:

Maybe they might release alts for existing female units and then get the rest of the men in that way, kind of like the The Branded Kind Focus where they released an alt for Chrom while introducing the Morgans.

Highly improbable, that style of banner is long dead.

25 minutes ago, Etheus said:

This is why I don't get all of the clamoring for SoV banners. It's really well represented. Not to say that I wouldn't mind more (hello, I'm a hypocrite because I still REALLY want Zeke, Luthier, Python, and Conrad), but it has better representation than say... Sacred Stones, Geneology, or Thracia.

Yeah, exactly. I love SoV, but despite it being a while since it last got a full banner's worth of attention, that's because it's so well supported already. Other games need it more right now.

6 minutes ago, Ottservia said:

Interesting statistics that pretty much explains why we haven't gotten an echoes banner in quite some time. Honestly the best way to go about it is to just drip feed it with alts, GHBs, and the like. As for the females thing aren't you forgetting Rinea or is that not counting NPCs. Oh well at least now I have a better idea on SoV's numbers.

Rinea is popular, but would be difficult to feature on a normal New Heroes banner. I think she'd fit better as a seasonal exclusive, like Greil.

1 minute ago, Sunwoo said:

@Interdimensional Observer Reinhardt isn't in Genealogy either, lol. Still, 3 out of 8 non-alt representatives being Thracia originals certainly doesn't bode well.

If they're not going to do a dedicated Thracia banner, we should at least get more mixed game banners that are willing to drop someone and not be all-alt banners. Like a possible rivals banner, that could give us Kieran, Tethys, Elrean, and Vaike as banner units with Kempf as a GHB. That's like five people from five different games with either Elrean or Vaike built as the drop.

The only reason I'm not as annoyed about the abundance of Tellius lately is because without the laguz they weren't very well represented and didn't have that high of a percentage of units anyway. As of right now, they can take a break though.

Reinhardt isn't playable, though.

I do think Mareeta should count, personally.

[Sunwoo]

1 minute ago, Othin said:

Reinhardt isn't playable, though.

I do think Mareeta should count, personally.

Fair enough, somewhere I missed that he was only counting the playable units. 

Mareeta is kind of in a weird murky ground for me. On the one hand, yeah, she's new and she should count. On the other hand, unlike possessed Hardin, her fallen self is such a small part of her character that its existence before the actual Mareeta feels really unsatisfying for me. But if he's not counting summer Noire I can see why he wouldn't count Mareeta either.

[Anacybele]

I don't know why anyone is hoping for any TMS. We didn't even get Lianna, Rowan, and Darios from FE Warriors and none of these characters were options in CYL either. And believe me, I would love Darios...

Edited May 16, 2019 by Anacybele

[Gregster101]

39 minutes ago, Etheus said:

This is why I don't get all of the clamoring for SoV banners. It's really well represented. Not to say that I wouldn't mind more (hello, I'm a hypocrite because I still REALLY want Zeke, Luthier, Python, and Conrad), but it has better representation than say... Sacred Stones, Geneology, or Thracia.

Cuz it's been over a year and a half since the last SoV banner. I say it's long overdue for one goddammit

[Fabulously Olivier]

9 minutes ago, Gregster101 said:

Cuz it's been over a year and a half since the last SoV banner. I say it's long overdue for one goddammit

Which is how I feel about Sacred Stones, which has gone even longer and is missing way more of its important characters.

 

Give me Cormag, goddamnit.

[Othin]

7 minutes ago, Sunwoo said:

Fair enough, somewhere I missed that he was only counting the playable units. 

Mareeta is kind of in a weird murky ground for me. On the one hand, yeah, she's new and she should count. On the other hand, unlike possessed Hardin, her fallen self is such a small part of her character that its existence before the actual Mareeta feels really unsatisfying for me. But if he's not counting summer Noire I can see why he wouldn't count Mareeta either.

Fair enough. Personally I found her possession arc to be the most memorable part of her story, and unlike Hardin, she has the same outfit and fighting style either way. So I'd consider "normal Mareeta" better represented right now than "normal Hardin".

6 minutes ago, Anacybele said:

I don't know why anyone is hoping for any TMS. We didn't even get Lianna, Rowan, and Darios from FE Warriors and none of these characters were options in CYL either. And believe me, I would love Darios...

Yeah, "was this character available to vote for on the last CYL" seems like a good metric for who is or isn't possible. Other than characters only introduced after the latest CYL (OCs and Faye so far, plus Three Houses characters soon), have there been any exceptions to that?

5 minutes ago, Gregster101 said:

Cuz it's been over a year and a half since the last SoV banner. I say it's long overdue for one goddammit

That's not a good metric. Over a year and a half ago, SoV's representation jumped ahead of every pre-3DS FE game, to the point where most of them still haven't finished catching up.

[Interdimensional Observer]

5 minutes ago, Othin said:

I do think Mareeta should count, personally.

If I had randomly got her as is, I'd use her due to the unlikelihood of her real self coming in anytime soon. But on principle, I won't count her. Real Thracia 776 playable Mareeta is not possessed, she takes pride in being Eyvel's adopted daughter and living up to her and her father, and is happy about being sane.

 

13 minutes ago, Anacybele said:

I don't know why anyone is hoping for any TMS. We didn't even get Lianna, Rowan, and Darios from FE Warriors and none of these characters were options in CYL either.

I must continue to hope! Itsuki-Tsubasa-Touma; Kiria-Eleonora-Mamori; Yashiro G-H-B, Uta-loid Tiki T-T!

Carnage Unity, Fire Emblem Heroes! Radiant Unity, Fire Emblem Heroes! Heroes Unity! Hear-rows U-nit-tee! 

*Continues chanting the sacred illusory mantras*

 

4 minutes ago, Sunwoo said:

Fair enough, somewhere I missed that he was only counting the playable units. 

Though remembering NPCs and villains exist does help in some cases. Julius and Ishtar make things significantly better for Gen 2 Genealogy even if they number only two. And Lloyd, Linus and Ursula add weight to arguing an earlier period in FEH's history of FE7 favoritism. Archanea has Camus, DE Hardin, Clarisse, Legion, and Gharnef, almost all its major villains (the only missing one is)...

Spoiler

....WAAAIIIIITTTTTTINNGGGGGG!

 

And can anyone tell me where my favorite children are? They aren't in the den of darkness called an orphanage where I train them brutally into assassins so they'll be strong enough to survive in this world. HellooooOOOO! Clarisse?! Rise?! Legions 1 to 10^12?!

 

 

[Anacybele]

10 minutes ago, Othin said:

Yeah, "was this character available to vote for on the last CYL" seems like a good metric for who is or isn't possible. Other than characters only introduced after the latest CYL (OCs and Faye so far, plus Three Houses characters soon), have there been any exceptions to that?

Certain NPCs were excluded, such as Bryce from Tellius, much to my disappointment. Bryce was always interesting to me, even though he was the least relevant of the Daein Riders.

[colossus86]

Not that this would be something I'd be interested in, but I feel like they could scrap together a gen 2 awakening banner centered around Yarne and Nah. People always want more beasts and dragons so maybe IS will figure their class alone will sell them even if they aren't ultra popular characters. Throw in one more awakening child with decent fodder and there you go.